Bosnia, between misery and hope

Which is the situation in Bòsnia more than 10 years after the agreements of Dayton, which finished the war, and that now they are an object of many criticisms?

These agreements can only be interpreted in the historical context of a moment, e. g., that its main goal was to finish the war and being acceptable for all the parts in conflict. From here its inconsistencies, the multiplication of the "power centers" that contains: a state entity for the whole territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a Federation Croatian and Muslim, (51% of the territory) and a Serbian entity, the Serbian Republic (Republika Sprska). This construction was, from the beginnings, a provisional construction where all the implied parts had to find elements of satisfaction: preservation of an only Bosnia grouping the 3 communities to preserve the multi-ethnic state of before of the war (solution wished especially by the Muslims) and a Serbian Republic, seen for the Serbians like an embryo of own state (or annexionable by Serbia).

This ambiguity in the interpretation of the agreements, towards the union or towards the separation, was beneficial in the short term because it allowed to halt the war. However, it was very prejudicial at long term because it blocked a commune policy of a Bosnian state and it was, and is still, source of multiple blockades and contradictions that make, for example, much more difficult the fulfillment of the conditions of entrance to the European Union. The criteria of entry in this dreamed Europe put especially the accent on a common organization of the defense, of the police and about a full cooperation with the International Penal Court. The opposition about these points comes especially from the Serbian Republic, where the criminals of war Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic are still too much perceived as heroes of war by an important part of the population.

A recent article of the magazine Osservatorio sui Balcani (Italian magazine devoted to the problems of the Balkans) analyzed the handbooks of history of the three communities of Bosnia for some teenagers of 15-16. In Dobrinja, a neighborhood of Sarajevo near the airport, the teaching of the main historical events of the 20th century, first and second war world-wide and war of 1992-1995, they are explained in a totally contradictory way to two schools placed at 500 meters of distance, only by the fact that these schools (Dobrinja III and Dobrinja IV) are separate for the "border" between the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serbian Republic. Is it possible to reconstruct a country where the ethnic version and the hatred to the other are keepped in the school education?

From a more global point of view, the fact that Serbia is immersed in other capital negotiations for its future with Kosovo does not help to solving the future of Bosnia. In the event of future and predictable independence of Kosovo, many Serbian foresees to ask in exchange a "compensation" that in its spirit should consist about the annexation of the Serbian Republic to Serbia.

As a matter of fact, the future of the Serbian entity of Bosnia it is played in a great part in Belgrade, where it seems that the first signs of self-criticism and of recognition of responsibility in the Yugoslav war arrive. A video shown during the judgement to Milosevic in the Haia teaching the massacres perpetrated by the Scorpions, a Serbian paramilitary unit that worked in squeeze collaboration with the Serbian army, seems that it has constituted a point of inflection. The increasing rumors of arrest of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic are interpreted for many like a prove of the support that they still have from the population and that has allowed them to hide themself comfortably and to avoid the capture until now. If this support weakens in a tired population and more self-criticism, the year 2006 could be the last year of their freedom and a good year for the stabilization and the normalization of the ex-Yugoslavian countries.

In the meantime, the economical situation in Bosnia comes off held up in a situation of alarming postwar period.

According to a report in January of this year 2006 published by the BIRN (Balkan Investigative Reporting Network), the poverty affects a big part of the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The world-wide bank considers that almost 20% of the people lives under the threshold of the poverty, with 150 convertible marks (KM) per month, that is, 75 euros. However, a third part of the population lives no sooner over this threshold.

The poverty is aggravated by a very high rate of unemployment that affects now about 510.000 people according to the unions. A surprising statistics in a country of four million inhabitants, especially if it is compared with the official number of workers: a bit less than 640.000.

Bosnia and Herzegovina comes off blocked in a cycle of low growth. The money that enters into the country is useful for funding the state institutions more than to create employment through the economic development.

In the long term, the only hope of Bosnia and of its neighbors is the prospect of integration into the European Union. Bosnia struggles between misery and hope: misery of an economical situation held up, of a poverty in increase, of an explosive social situation, of some nationalism in the power and prisoners of its past..., and hope of a possible normalization if the criminals of war are judged, if the relationships with the neighboring countries are harmonized, if the European perspective is specified, if finally the conditions to come back are gathered in a more open world, tolerant and decided to looking towards the future without forgetting the past.